Sunday, September 14, 2003

[ELECTIONS 2003] If You Don't Succeed…

Many political commentators from the right sphere of Croatian media still can't fathom why HSLS and DC can't come to some sort of understanding and form coalition necessary for those two parties to swing the outcome of next elections. Partly because of so much negative reaction, partly because of Sanader's discreet pressure (if he wants HSLS and DC to hook up, he can't do it publicly, because it would be sign of weakness) and partly because of some suspicious-looking opinion polls that give HSLS-DC massive 10% of votes, HSLS and DC restarted negotiations. Those negotiations ended on Friday, still without result.

In the meantime, Dražen Budiša (Drazen Budisa) published the candidates' lists in each of 10 electoral districts. This is clear show of force – Budiša wants to tell anyone that he can go to the polls alone and that his loyal troops on the ground won't be sold out to bunch of losers from DC. This new-found confidence of HSLS could be, at least partially, explained with the opinion polls. If HSLS-DC can get 10% Budiša expects that most of those 10% are coming from his supporters. HSLS Without DC can in that way expect at least 6-7 %, which is enough for comfortable 10 seats in Sabor. So, why risking party unity over bunch of losers that could bring mere 1-2 %?

I'm rather sceptic towards all those opinion polls, because traditionally HDZ and SDP fare much better on the real elections than in those surveys. Discrepancy between opinion and actual polls is usually at the expense of centre or "centre" parties like HSLS and DC.


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