Friday, November 21, 2003

[ELECTIONS 2003] Final Poll – Florida Scenario for Croatia?

Puls, Split-based polling agency and one of the most reliable in Croatia, has conducted the last opinion poll for HRT, Croatian state television. Results of the survey, conducted on the pool of 4000 potential voters all over Croatia, doesn't show much difference from other polls. Again, everything indicates very tight race with Račan's (Racan's) coalition and right-wing each ending with almost the same number of seats. Diaspora and minority seats are most likely to be kingmakers.

The only possible surprise are two potential seats for HSU – Croatian Party of Pensioners, organisation which is more of a lobby than real political party. It was usually close to Račan so this might good news for left-wing.

This final poll shows that SDP probably did the right thing by adding Libra and LS votes through pre-election coalitions. Sanader, who based all of his hopes on HSLS-DC going without him, is going to regret not taking Račan's (Racan's) example and allowing right-wing votes to dissipate to small parties that wouldn't pass 5% tresshold.

In any case, new government is going to very unstable. Even more worrying is real possibility that it would take weeks, if not months, before Croatians know the real winner of elections.


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