Big Brother Croatia Update: Ground War Has Begun

Last night's in Big Brother House showed male and female to have different motives for nominations. Saša (Sasa) and Zdravko nominated women because they liked each other's company. Marina and Antonija nominated men because they thought that they could survive only if none of them is paired against one of the men during nominations. Alen was torn between the two and, in the end, he opted for the combination of voting based on personal sympathies (nominating Antonija, not nominating Marina) and tactical considerations (he thought Saša to have less chances of evictions). Alen's decision was even harder in light of the fact that Marina has finally went on record and said to his face that she wouldn't have any serious relationship with him in or out of House. However, grand prize and idea of knocking out competitors apparently didn't play any part in the decisions.

That appears not to be the case out of House. It seems that at least some of the housemates had small armies of supporters organised and ready to do anything in order to secure their final victory. This could play some part in this week's eviction race, making it much closer and less predictable than previously thought.

First manifestations of such phenomena were recorded only few hours after the announcement of the nominations. When the first post-nomination poll appeared on T-Com's Big Brother site, the numbers were more or less consistent with the numbers in other relevant polls – 70 % Antonija, 30 % Saša. But it lasted only for an hour. Almost immediately the numbers switched to 45 % Antonija, 55 % Saša. In the early morning the polls was again in Saša's favour – 55 % to 45 %. Around noon, the race was again dead heat. In late afternoon, the race began to sway back in Saša's favour and now is somewhere in 62-38 % territory, which corresponds with numbers in Antonija vs. Valentina race.

There are already speculations that try to explain such unusual volatility. One of the reasons is in the T-Com's poll being rigged. If Saša gets insurmountable lead early on, the public would quickly lose interest in phone voting and T-Com would lose profit. Another, more credible explanation is in the small but very dedicated group of Antonija's relatives, friends and fans who have conducted well-coordinated vote stuffing operation.

This corresponds with another thing that occurred on Croatian Internet forums last night. Some friends of Antonija which had been calling Zdravko, Alen and Marina all kinds of names in last few weeks are now changing tunes. They have sent passionate appeals to Zdravko's, Alen's and Marina's fans calling them to vote against Saša because he was a clear favourite and this eviction vote was the best and the probably opportunity for Zdravko, Saša and Marina to get rid of him and have some chance in the final stage.

Many called this last-minute PR campaign pathetic, but nevertheless it does make some sort of sense. With Saša out of House, the chances for the remaining four would be more even. Antonija's camp believes that this kind of scenario could benefit Antonija because she could expect at least some of the support from the fans of the past evictees, especially members of now defunct Axis – Ana, Valentina, Sanja.

Zdravko's camp could also hope to benefit from the scenario, especially because they, unlike Alen's camp, can't expect the backlash from disgruntled Saša's fans. On the other hand, this backlash might never appear simply because Alen appeared to be devastated with the way nominations turned out. His anguish over nominations looked genuine and it seems that even the most ardent Saša's partisans can forgive him.

On the other hand, if Saša goes down, it could also be attributed to some of his tactical errors which have lately given ammunition to his detractors. It appears that he was trying a little bit too hard to be likeable. He was at least few times caught smashing certain objects of purpose, in an apparent attempt to look "cool. his apparent lack of knowledge who Ivica Račan (Ivica Racan) was is widely interpreted as an attempt to emulate Zlatko's legendary Shakespeare moment from the first season of Big Brother Germany.

The ground war between Saša's and Antonija's camp, of course, is going to be very limited in scope. Sheer amount of money necessary in order to sway the vote in one way or another is way over the grand prize. So, if someone's family wants their favourite to win, prestige rather than improving home finances is going to be the primary motive.

In the meantime, all this background scheming is overshadowed by the Saša's birthday party, arrival of Playboy model, plenty of alcohol and many interesting situations that could develop during the night under such circumstances. Croatian viewers, however, are unlikely to see those situations on their screens live, despite previous announcements. Today's Jutarnji list again proves to be not so reliable source when it comes to anything related Big Brother Croatia.