[ELECTION 2005] Kosor Beats Mesić (Mesic) 4-1… Sort Of

According to results of Mediana Fides survey, published in today's Jutarnji list, Jadranka Kosor has outspent Stipe Mesić (Stipe Mesic) 4-1 in television and newspaper ads. The survey covered four TV stations, 9 daily newspapers and around 43 other publications before the first round of election. Based on the average ad price, Mediana Fides has estimated that Kosor spent 8.7 million HRK (cca. 1.15 million €). Mesić spent 2.02 million HRK (cca. 260,000 €).

These numbers are very interesting when compared with those published by the campaigns themselves. Kosor campaign claimed that it had spent 3.6 million HRK only to raise that number to 4.2 million at the end of week. Mesić campaign, on the other hand, claimed that it had spent more than Mediana Fides estimate – 3.3 million HRK.

In any case, Kosor has obviously outspent Mesić, but whether this financial advantage will reflect itself at the polls remains to be seen. Judging by the way other candidates fared, it doesn't bode well for HDZ candidate. For example, third largest amount for campaign ads was spent by Ivić Pašalić (Ivic Pasalic) – 844,000 HRK. The fourth was Đurđa Adlešić with 745,000 HRK. Both ended in single digits at the polls. Boris Mikšić (Boris Miksic), who almost went into second round, had spent only 500,000 HRK.

In the meantime, Promocija Puls agency has conducted one of the first opinion polls after first round of election. According to their results, Mesić should win comfortably – he gets 62 % of the vote to Kosor's 25 %. Even better news for Mesić is in the composition of his electorate. He can expect 17 % votes of HDZ members, 58 % of HSP and majority of Mikšić (Miksic) voters. And the latter two are exactly the people Kosor needs to win if she is to have a slightest chance of making an upset.