Big Brother Croatia Update: Dramatic Necessity

Conventional wisdom and on-line polls suggest that at least one segment of tonight's live Big Brother Show won't be much of surprise. Željko (Zeljko) apparently failed to use the one extra week of opportunity to win audience's sympathies. The only factor that could make a last-minute shift in his favour is Alen. Last night's TV daily summary had some of that effect and some polls saw the gap between Željko and Alen closing.

However, it most likely that this new development was too little too late. Furthermore, judging by the way they have manipulated their material on TV yesterday, it is very likely that RTL Televizija found the new dramatic potential in the show – something that looks very much like a love triangle between Alen, Marina and Zdravko. This new dramatic potential, together with Alen's clownish personality, definitely puts Alen in advantage over Željko (Zeljko) when it comes to the commercial considerations of RTL Televizija and its sponsors.

It is very likely that RTL Televizija acted in order to secure Alen's staying in House or at least to prevent him from going on his own accord and thus deprive show's sponsors from phone vote income. In the morning after Valentina's birthday Alen spent some time in Confessions Room talking with the show's psychologist. This was both in order to convince him to stay and to evaluate his ability to do something stupid or violent – anyone had witnessed late Wednesday's conversation with Marina is more aware that Alen can act violently (in this case, fortunately, the only victim of his rage was the bedroom wall, but that may change in the future).

Even with Željko's (Zeljko's) eviction being certain, the second phase of tonight's show – nominations – is very hard to predict. Traditional Jutarnji list panel of friends and relatives suggests four names – Alen (4), Zdravko, Marina and Ana (3). Again, what housemates might do is quite another thing. Many may nominate Marina only in order to get rid of Alen, because he gave impression of her eviction being the reason enough for his own voluntary departure. Zdravko is somewhat less likely to be nominated because housemates fear that he has the teenybopper vote in his pocket and that whoever else gets nominated is likely to be evicted; on the other hand, he also might be nominated simply in order to secure that other person's eviction. Alen also can be a wild card – in yesterday's conversation with Marina he said that he would like to stay for extra week, but not in the final four.