[ELECTION 2005] First Results Show Tight Race

GONG, Croatian electoral watchdog, has published its projection, based on its observers reporting from 4 % of polling stations. Number in parenthesis is estimated margin of error.

Stjepan Mesić (Stjepan Mesic) - 51.41 % (+/- 1,88 %)
Boris Mikšić (Boris Miksic) - 18,37 % (+/- 1%)
Jadranka Kosor - 18,2 % (+/- 1,17 %)
Đurđa Adlešić (Djurdja Adlesic) - 2,72 % (+/- 0,36 %)
Slaven Letica - 2,62 % (+/- 0,19 %)
Ljubo Ćesić (Ljubo Cesic) - 1,90 % (+/- 0,25 %)
Ivić Pašalić (Ivic Pasalic) - 1,65 % (+/- 0,23 %)
Anto Kovačević (Anto Kovacevic) - 0,87 % (+/- 0,14 %)
Miroslav Blažević (Miroslav Blazevic) - 0,78 % (+/- 0,08 %)
Miroslav Rajh - 0,75 % (+/- 0,07 %)
Doris Košta (Doris Kosta) - 0,42 % (+/- 0,06 %)
Mladen Kešer (Mladen Keser) - 0,33 % (+/- 0,1 %)
Tomislav Petrak 0,12 % (+/- 0,03 %)

Those number indicate strong possibility of Mesić having to go in second round and Kosor snatching second place from Mikšić.

There is also possibility of Letica snatching 4^th place from Adlešić.

On a related note, HRT has just aired pictures of Mikšić dancing in his headquarters.

UPDATE:

GONG published updated unofficial returns after 22:00 CET.

Based on them, it appears that Mesić slightly improved his margin (51.78 %), while Mikšić improved his margin (18.53 %) over Kosor (17.74 %).

Second round doesn't look as likely as it had looked one hour ago, but the night is still young and expatriate votes can turn this election around. However, first data from Bosnia indicate that Croatian expatriates voted in significantly smaller numbers than in 2000 and that the fall of turnout there follows the same pattern as in Croatia proper. It is too early to establish whether this would reflect in voting patterns.

PULS exit polls also show that Mikšić won unexpectedly high number of votes among right-wing voters, voters unaffiliated with political parties, young voters and Eurosceptic voters. His 2^nd place looks very much like the protest vote.