Saturday, October 02, 2004

Big Brother Croatia - More Even Contest

After Egle's eviction, which was hardly surprising, the contest became more interesting. Next nomination is almost certainly going to lead to much more unpredictability and drama because the next candidate to get evicted is, in most likelihood, not the one who would look forward to such prospect.

In my humble opinion, at least one of the candidates is very likely to be nominated and also likely to be evicted one week later. Below are my thoughts on candidates and their chances to survive the next nomination/eviction cycle.

The weakest candidate of all is Ozren. He has two major problems to overcome in next five days. First is last week's incident during which he got drunk and managed to scare housemates. Very few people would like to live with potential bully, so they would nominate him again. Others might reason that his first nomination have made him potentially vengeful so his eviction could secure their own position. Other, and potentially decisive, factor is his constant barrage of sob stories about his beautiful girlfriend Viktorija to whom he would return if not for the "desire to secure common future". This could allow many contestants to take him by his word and nominate him without any remorse or additional justification. This also can have negative effects during the voting phase – many of Big Brother Croatia fans could adopt such reasoning and reunite Viktorija and Ozren with their votes. The only thing that could save Ozren during the voting phase is local chauvinism of his fellow Zagrebians (25 % of all Croatians) and teenyboppers who would conspire to vote off Marina or Valentina.

Situation is less clear with er candidates, but some are more likely to be nominated than others.

One of them is Alen, who made a mistake by being engaged in first major quarrel with Ana. Ana thinks of him as immature and nominated him in the first round. Men could nominate him because he got too close with Marina. Antonija and Valentina could nominate him because of his sexual aggressiveness. His chances for eviction are somewhat less likely – many in the audience are going to be entertained by his antics, while some might be disgusted with his personal wealth.

Sanja, on the other hand, might get nominated because she gives impression of being too annoying, at least to the Beautiful People crowd. Filip might nominate her solely in order to remove the remainder of his greatest embarrassment. Once nominated, her chances for survival are slim – most of the audiences, regardless of gender, sexual orientation or worldview, are going to prefer not seeing her in show any more.

Somewhat less likely to be nominated, but still in danger, is Valentina. Housemates might not think much of her bossy attitude, conservative worldview and unwillingness to engage in party activities. If nominated, she could suffer because of her heavy Herzegovina accent.

Same goes, to a certain degree, for Marina, although she might nominated mostly thanks to female housemates (in that sense, Egle's eviction actually improved her chances). If she is nominated, she is toast, unless another eviction alternative is someone like Sanja or Alen.

Antonija also could be in danger of nomination because of her exhibitionism. She looks much better than Sanja, so it is unlikely that the male housemates would nominate her. She is likely to survive nomination in most of combinations.

Filip might get nominated by female housemates because of his unhealthy sexual obsession with two girls in the same time, while his male buddies might think of him as too pathetic. In the voting phase his heavy Split accent and rich parents might prove to be very unpleasant liability.

Zdravko (who incidentally got his own fan website) might get nominated for "failing to connect", but his voting chances look relatively good. Teenyboppers are going to keep him in House for a long time.
At this stage, Ana has to worry only about Alen, but if, by some strange chance, she gets nominated, she could get in trouble from the teenybooper crowd. because of her recent closeness to Ozren.

Two candidates who don't have any reasons to worry are Krešo (Kreso) and Saša (Sasa). They are the only ones who enjoy same level of popularity among their housemates and general public.

So, in most likelihood, Ozren is the next one to go. There is 50-50 % chance of Ozren staying if paired with Alen, and 60-40 % if paired by Sanja. Match between Alen and Sanja would result in Alen's favour.


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